Comments
yourfanat wrote: I am using another tool for Oracle developers - dbForge Studio for Oracle. This IDE has lots of usefull features, among them: oracle designer, code competion and formatter, query builder, debugger, profiler, erxport/import, reports and many others. The latest version supports Oracle 12C. More information here.
Cloud Expo on Google News
SYS-CON.TV

2008 West
DIAMOND SPONSOR:
Data Direct
SOA, WOA and Cloud Computing: The New Frontier for Data Services
PLATINUM SPONSORS:
Red Hat
The Opening of Virtualization
GOLD SPONSORS:
Appsense
User Environment Management – The Third Layer of the Desktop
Cordys
Cloud Computing for Business Agility
EMC
CMIS: A Multi-Vendor Proposal for a Service-Based Content Management Interoperability Standard
Freedom OSS
Practical SOA” Max Yankelevich
Intel
Architecting an Enterprise Service Router (ESR) – A Cost-Effective Way to Scale SOA Across the Enterprise
Sensedia
Return on Assests: Bringing Visibility to your SOA Strategy
Symantec
Managing Hybrid Endpoint Environments
VMWare
Game-Changing Technology for Enterprise Clouds and Applications
Click For 2008 West
Event Webcasts

2008 West
PLATINUM SPONSORS:
Appcelerator
Get ‘Rich’ Quick: Rapid Prototyping for RIA with ZERO Server Code
Keynote Systems
Designing for and Managing Performance in the New Frontier of Rich Internet Applications
GOLD SPONSORS:
ICEsoft
How Can AJAX Improve Homeland Security?
Isomorphic
Beyond Widgets: What a RIA Platform Should Offer
Oracle
REAs: Rich Enterprise Applications
Click For 2008 Event Webcasts
Election #DataScience and the Death of Truth | @CloudExpo #BigData #Analytics
Many candidates treated opinions as ‘truth’ and a large portion of the American public grabbed ahold of these ‘truths’ as gospel

The U.S. Presidential election is finally over. The protests are winding down, they’ve stopped burning cars in Oakland (for now), and the talks of California succession are waning. But I am struggling to return to “normal” because in this election, truth got hammered.

Many candidates treated opinions as “truth” and a large portion of the American public grabbed a hold of these “truths” as gospel. It may have been a good time to be in the “fact checking” business, but I’m not sure how effective even the fact checkers could be given the spontaneous nature of “opinions as facts” being thrown around, not to mention the people who create fake news intentionally.

So let’s play a game! Let’s call this game “Separate the Truth from the Myths.” Let’s see how you do.

  1. Bat Boy Sighted in NYC Subway (probably too expensive to get a condo in Manhattan)
  2. Obama Appoints Martian Ambassador (but the Senate will request Matt Damon since he’s already lived and farmed on Mars)
  3. Skynet is a Reality (Hey, even Iron Man showed up at the Senate to tell them so!)
  4. Ted Cruz Shot JFK (okay, so it actually was his dad, but accusing Ted Cruz is more funny)

All but one of these stories appeared in the highly credible “National Enquirer” or “Weekly World News.” That’s like buying a copy of the “Mad Magazine” (for you old timers) or reading “The Onion” (for you young whippersnappers) expecting the “truth” from these satirical publications (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Real Headlines from “Less Than Credible” Sources

However the below stories in Figure 2 where plastered across social media sites as if they were the truth, and as you can see from the engagement numbers, lots of people took the time to read these “truths.”

Figure 2: Social Media Fake News and Number of Views

Data Science And Common Sense
As a data scientist, we need to know not to accept the “truth” without applying some common sense. For all the fancy training in neural networks, artificial intelligence and machine learning, it’s hard to replace “common sense” as a necessary data scientist characteristic. Let’s walk through an example of how a data scientist might approach one of the sensational stories that recently popped up on social media (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: The Guardian, September 26, 2016

OMG, murders are up 10.8% in the biggest percentage increase since 1971, according to a highly credible source like the FBI. It’s become the “Walking Dead” out there!

Sensational headlines grab attention and incite fear and dread. “Dirty Laundry” sells. But the problem with data at the aggregate level is that it:

  • Distorts the real truth (or root cause) of what’s the problem, and
  • It is not actionable

The above headline could lead to the conclusion that the current criminal and rehabilitation policies have failed and everything should be thrown out. But there are no details as to what aspects of these programs are broken and no triage of the root causes in order to explore what might be done to fix the problem. As a data scientist, one must demand the granular details so that we can turn the data into insights in order to make the information actionable, such as:

This is a good starting point. If we want to address the increase in murders, we need to drill into each individual murder (and attempted murder) in those 10 cities. We need to keep drilling into the granular details in order to identify those variables and metrics that might be predictors of murders and attempted murders.

For example, we could identify the specific blocks of these cities where the murders are occurring, or the time of day and day of week, or the time of the year, or any special events that occurred right before the murders, etc. We could explore other variables that might be indicative of an increase in murder (e.g., % of broken homes, % of children born out of wedlock, % of high school dropouts, % of drug addicts, unemployment rate among male adults, increase in graffiti).

Once we know those variables that are predictive of murders, then we have a focus as to where we can start fixing the problem, taking corrective actions such as adding more police or community outreach, reducing high school dropouts, increasing drug arrests, testing different programs and approaches, measuring program effectiveness, learning and improving. Now that’s thinking like a data scientist.

Data Scientist Lessons Learned
What are the lessons that we can take away from this “opinions as facts” syndrome?

  • Common sense is critical. Don’t accept “truths” at face value. Demand more details in order to identify and quantify those variables and metrics that might be predictive or indicative of the researched problem.
  • You can’t fix the business – or the country – without drilling into the details and the potential causal factors. We need insights that are drawn from facts that are supported by granular data so that we know what actions to take. With these detailed insights in hand, we now know where to invest our scarce financial and human resources.
  • Details matter. At the aggregate level, the headlines may be sensational, but it is not insightful or actionable until you get into the details. Remember Simpson’s Paradox.
  • Data quality, accuracy and reasonableness are important, especially if you are trying to make business-impactful decisions based upon that data. Business users, if they are expected to use the data to support decisions, must have confidence in the data. “Facts as Facts” are critical if we want to overcome decisions being made on a traditional basis such as gut, hearsay and history.

The good data scientist learns not to trust anything at first blush; that while opinions might yield variables and metrics that might be better predictors of performance, in the end the data scientists need to validate each of these variables and metrics to quantify if they really are better predictors of performance.

In the movie “Star Wars: The New Hope," the weak-minded Storm Troopers were easily dissuaded from pursuing the truth about the droids by Obi-Wan Kenobi’s use of the Jedi Mind Trick to plant the “truth” in their weak minds.

Don’t be weak-minded about seeking the truth. Use your common sense to challenge the “truth,” and get into the granular details so that one can identify and quantify those variables and metrics that are better predictor or indicators of the problems.

And beware the “These aren’t the Droids you’re looking for” syndrome. That’s for the weak-minded.

The post Election Data Science and the Death of Truth appeared first on InFocus Blog | Dell EMC Services.

Read the original blog entry...

About William Schmarzo
Bill Schmarzo, author of “Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business” and “Big Data MBA: Driving Business Strategies with Data Science”, is responsible for setting strategy and defining the Big Data service offerings for Dell EMC’s Big Data Practice. As a CTO within Dell EMC’s 2,000+ person consulting organization, he works with organizations to identify where and how to start their big data journeys. He’s written white papers, is an avid blogger and is a frequent speaker on the use of Big Data and data science to power an organization’s key business initiatives. He is a University of San Francisco School of Management (SOM) Executive Fellow where he teaches the “Big Data MBA” course. Bill also just completed a research paper on “Determining The Economic Value of Data”. Onalytica recently ranked Bill as #4 Big Data Influencer worldwide. Bill has over three decades of experience in data warehousing, BI and analytics. Bill authored the Vision Workshop methodology that links an organization’s strategic business initiatives with their supporting data and analytic requirements. Bill serves on the City of San Jose’s Technology Innovation Board, and on the faculties of The Data Warehouse Institute and Strata. Previously, Bill was vice president of Analytics at Yahoo where he was responsible for the development of Yahoo’s Advertiser and Website analytics products, including the delivery of “actionable insights” through a holistic user experience. Before that, Bill oversaw the Analytic Applications business unit at Business Objects, including the development, marketing and sales of their industry-defining analytic applications. Bill holds a Masters Business Administration from University of Iowa and a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics, Computer Science and Business Administration from Coe College.

Latest AJAXWorld RIA Stories
DX World EXPO, LLC, a Lighthouse Point, Florida-based startup trade show producer and the creator of "DXWorldEXPO® - Digital Transformation Conference & Expo" has announced its executive management team. The team is headed by Levent Selamoglu, who has been named CEO. "Now is the ...
Companies are harnessing data in ways we once associated with science fiction. Analysts have access to a plethora of visualization and reporting tools, but considering the vast amount of data businesses collect and limitations of CPUs, end users are forced to design their structu...
"Akvelon is a software development company and we also provide consultancy services to folks who are looking to scale or accelerate their engineering roadmaps," explained Jeremiah Mothersell, Marketing Manager at Akvelon, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct ...
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, James Henry, Co-CEO/CTO of Calgary Scientific Inc., introduced you to the challenges, solutions and benefits of training AI systems to solve visual problems with an emphasis on improving AIs with continuous training in the field. He explored app...
The question before companies today is not whether to become intelligent, it’s a question of how and how fast. The key is to adopt and deploy an intelligent application strategy while simultaneously preparing to scale that intelligence. In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sangeeta...
Subscribe to the World's Most Powerful Newsletters
Subscribe to Our Rss Feeds & Get Your SYS-CON News Live!
Click to Add our RSS Feeds to the Service of Your Choice:
Google Reader or Homepage Add to My Yahoo! Subscribe with Bloglines Subscribe in NewsGator Online
myFeedster Add to My AOL Subscribe in Rojo Add 'Hugg' to Newsburst from CNET News.com Kinja Digest View Additional SYS-CON Feeds
Publish Your Article! Please send it to editorial(at)sys-con.com!

Advertise on this site! Contact advertising(at)sys-con.com! 201 802-3021


SYS-CON Featured Whitepapers
ADS BY GOOGLE